Eight years have really crapped-out the Company. The CIA has alternated between scapegoat for 9/11 and speech writer for President “W”. It is said that analysts are so tired of having their reports completely rewritten that there are now many fewer of them. The politicos have reacted almost with glee–now they can write fiction directly without having to twist the hard work of those who know better. Field operatives complain of being denied critical resources necessary to accomplish nationally-sanctioned goals. At the same time, NeoCon lawyers without an ethical care, validate torture and some do what they’re told.
However, there’s also an inherent problem that will prevent the CIA from ever being a top-flight intelligence agency (quite apart from the spine-less loony tuners appointed to run the show). The continued reliance on “National Assets” (satellites, signal intelligence, and the occasional aerial recon) means that the South Koreans have better intelligence on our intentions than we will ever have over even a friendly Middle Eastern country like Israel.
We need to come to grips with the reality that we are a lower-ranking second tier power when it comes to HUMINT. In the bad old days when we could just assume that the Soviets loathed us, that might have been O.K. However, in this “war on terror,” I submit it is far more critical to know Al Qaeda’s specific intent than it is to have a middling inventory of their assets. Primarily, the whole discussion so far over the “war on terror” is concerned with “assets” more because we can count them (or cook the numbers) than because it signifies anything meaningful.
The build-up to war with Iran is a perfect example. We’re busy county centrifuges, reactors, and engineers, but the really critical info (which we are all but clueless about) is the intent of Iran now, and in the future. The judgment of history will soon be that the centrifuges and reactors no longer existed, and the engineers had better things to do.
So, the next president needs to appoint a CIA Director who will both instill confidence inside the Company and be willing to quickly fall on a bayonet if he/she is asked to deviate very far from what the analysts say. However, the decades-long weakness in HUMINT needs to be cured too or there will be no data for the analysts to answer the critical intent questions with (which quickly leads to the temptation to “fudge” to compensate). So far, the evidence is not encouraging.
If the CIA is to be dissolved, that will require something no one has ever successfully accomplished–the unification of the branch military intelligence services along with the removal of counter-intelligence from the FBI (who have always done a very, very bad job of it). There’s no snowball insulated enough to fly that mission while the Joint Chiefs system is in place. But our military services are just another area in need of serious attention from men and women of ability and integrity. Will we get it?
