Archive for June, 2008

Salesperson-to-Policy: How Not to Acquire Weapons Systems

Saturday, June 28th, 2008

Well, most unclassified pronouncements about any weapon system are pure advertising hype. What is seldom discussed are the real requirements that should bind a system.  UAV/RPV’s are a perfect example–the systems seem to be getting bigger and more expensive with each model.  Especially for a vehicle designed to take the place of a manned vehicle, this seems to be the very wrong direction to go.  However, keep in mind that both Boeing and Northrop-Grumman have  a vested interest in manned vehicles too.  The real thinking may be that giving war-fighters an even choice between manned and unmanned systems all but guarantees that both systems will be maintained and employed.  Nice, and it doubles revenue too . . .

I should say that an UAV/RPV–particularly one designed for recon–should be cheap and small instead of big, fast, and expensive (in fact, slow and very quiet might get some awesome pictures). Otherwise, the expense of losing one of these things may affect the calculation to use one when it is really necessary.  More importantly, the bigger and more expensive these vehicles are, the less likely that anyone in a line unit is ever going to see one.  UAV’s are becoming the play things for those at “echelons above Corps”–sometimes called “echelons beyond reality.”

Such “winners” as the trap-door Springfield (billed as a cheap way to convert muzzle loaders to breach loaders); the Snark (need I say more?); and MBT-80 are strewn across American acquisition history. I actually had a chance to talk to one of the persons who did the internal evaluation for the MBT-80. The 20mm cannon manned by the tank commander was required to be able to penetrate the TC hatch of a T-64B at 1000m. It could, but the convoluted scenario Chrysler/General Dynamics cooked up required the MBT-80 to be at the top of the Rift Valley in East Africa shooting directly down into the poor T-64B below–a near vertical shot.

Although the MBT-80 was never adopted, it ultimately morphed into the M-1 and the Leopard II. It would have been a ferociously expensive (and very, very heavy) main battle tank.

I think this “puffing” of weapons systems occurs because DoD abdicates any direct and control over acquisition programs and pretty much lets program managers run carte blanch.  The U.S. has a long history of handling acquisition and procurement very poorly.  For one brief, shining moment, things started to rationalize during the Kennedy Administration and then it went all to hell again. The prognosis for reform in the future is not good.

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The Albatross of Senator McCain

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Senator McCain was stationed on two aircraft carriers that had serious fires while in a combat zone: the USS Forrestal and the USS Oriskni.

Much commentary, both pro and con, has been made about McCain’s involvement in the USS Forrestal fire. What is undisputed is that LtCmdr McCain was starting his A-4E in preparation for take off on a mission when a Zuni rocket on an F-4 located further down the deck launched striking a drop tank on the A-4E and dislodging a 1,000lb bomb. The fuel flowing from the drop tank ignited and very quickly, several aircraft became involved in the fire. Soon after LtCmdr McCain jumped off the nose of his aircraft, the 1,000lb bomb cooked off blowing a hole in the deck and allowing the fire to further spread to the lower decks. Ultimately, 132 died, 62 were injured, and 2 were missing and presumed dead. These are the agreed facts.

Where there is some dispute: 1) did LtCmdr McCain engage in a wet start of his A-4E? 2) did this event directly trigger the Zuni rocket launch? 3) did LtCmdr McCain panic and drop his ordinance load on the deck before leaving his aircraft? 4) was there some sort of conspiracy theory about using Composition B bombs instead of H6 and 1,000lb instead of 500lb ordinance involving McCain? and 5) was there a cover up?

Probably irrelevant: even if LtCmdr McCain had done everything perfectly, it is just as likely (as the official story reports) that an electrical fault caused the Zuni to launch–after which physics largely takes over; and, 134 men would still be dead with 62 injured.

Win, lose, or draw–he still gets to live with that.

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North Korea has Moved to the Western Hemisphere

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

We are the North Korea of the Western Hemisphere. Like the North Koreans, this Administration is convinced that numerous, far-flung forces are ready to attack at a moment’s notice. Like the North Koreans, the administration is overwhelming populated by the super-rich for whom foregoing golf is “a major sacrifice for the troops.” Like the North Koreans, our military is well fed, but many of our people are starving. Like the North Koreans, we are now infamous for our mistreatment of prisoners. And like the North Koreans, gasoline is expensive and getting more so.

I’m not the greatest fan of Senator Obama, but it appears less likely he will continue this policy of misrepresenting America. Unfortunately, with the increasingly tighter embrace that Senator McCain delivers to the “W”, it is all but certain he would be more of the same. (Point out to me a significant policy difference . . . please!)

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What One Wandering NeoCon Lawyer Can Do

Sunday, June 22nd, 2008

The problem with neocon lawyers isn’t that they’re horrible per se. Some of these men and women are technically brilliant. The problem comes from the lack of a single fundamental principle or overarching concept of law that guides these lawyers. John Yoo, and men and women like him, are driven by the axiom that the “end justifies the means.” Thus, no matter what the damage to ordinary Americans, the law, the courts, or the military, if torture would “accomplish” the victory, then it should be used.

Damage?  Our use of torture against our opponents insures that torture will be used against the men and women of our armed services.  The legal concept of “illegal enemy combatants” creates a whole class of person beyond the reach of even the most basic of procedural protections.  Western Europe quite rightly sees this as a human rights catastrophe.  It significantly contributes to the ill will directed by many nations against us–we are no longer civilized.  The courts have been largely swept aside as functional checks on Executive Branch authority.  The Fourth Amendment is a thin shadow barely visible in the constitution; and the Fifth Amendment is on life support.  As a result, ordinary Americans are much less free than they were eight years ago.   And much less safe also . . .

Of course, that reveals the second neocon weakness–they’re not very good at reaching goals by any means.

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Frogfoot over Persia

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

Su-25K Frogfoot. Ironically, these aircraft were originally purchased by Iraq for use against Iran. Seven fell into Iranian hands in 1991 at the beginning of the First Gulf War when their pilots (along with a majority of the Iraqi Air Force) voted with their planes and sought internment in Iran over combat with Allied fighters. Apparently, the aircrafts fearsome ground attack reputation led the Iranians to not return them. Two others were downed by F-15s near the Iranian border along with two escorting MiG-21s.

Like the A-10 which has similar specifications, the Su-25K is essentially a heavily armored platform for a 30mm cannon and innumerable hard points. It first saw action in Afghanistan.

Unlike the A-10, the Su-25TM (and a follow-on variant, the Su-34) are still in production. The Su-25K is the export variant. Apparently, the Russians don’t feel that an aircraft with these sorts of close air support credentials is obsolete; unlike the USAF which shudders to fly anything without afterburners and swept wings. A-10s are kept in service by cannibalization and by remanufacturing, but there are no new A-10s and it is most unlikely–given the USAF’s distaste for this aircraft–that anymore of its type will ever be constructed.

Those who will likely face us in future conflicts are well aware of these trends; which is why they buy aircraft like the Su-25 as fast as they role off the assembly lines.

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Why the “W” and Cheney will Never be Impeached

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

It is ironic (intentional?) that the farce that was the Clinton impeachment has created such a distaste for impeachment as a process that some Congresspersons pursuing impeachment of Cheney and the “W” in the House privately opine that the necessary votes are not on the floor unless something truly notable occurs.

Moreover, with a ruthlessness only Ralph Nader and Bismark would appreciate, the Democrats have come to the realization that the “W” and Cheney have flopped so glaringly in leading this country that the cheapest way to run against any Republican candidate is to first run against the “W” and Cheney. For reasons that escape me (but probably involve genuflecting to the Moral Majority), Senator McCain has made this tactic even easier by binding himself closely to the military and economic policies of this administration.

I can only conclude that the Republican hate machine is so confident in it’s ability to personally destroy Senator Obama that even a mere mention of the issues will never appear.

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Dr. Rice and the Impulsive Need to Spear Iran

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

To illustrate just how far over the deep end (and plunging to crush depth!) Condi, Cheney, “W” and all the rest are:
“There are few nations in the world with which the United States has less reason to quarrel or more compatible interests than Iran.”
Who said it? Henry Kissinger in his book Does America Need a Foreign Policy? : Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century.

Now, the Neocons have long advocated a foreign policy with roots more in keeping with President W. Wilson who believed America needed to engage in a crusade to spread democracy far and wide. “Spheres of influence” conveys an atmosphere of restraint and rational thought (as in un-cooked intelligence estimates) that wouldn’t find America pushing its best and brightest out to the “point of the spear.” Dr. Kissinger has heated some of his rhetoric up, but fundamentally he remains an advocate of thought before force–not vice versa.

So, Althought Dr. Kissinger’s book was written before 9/11, it’s comments–especially concerning Iran–remain valid. The only way the world changed after 9/11 was in our tolerance (actually, the lack thereof) for the Taliban in Afghanistan. Regrettably, in total disregard of appropriate military and geopolitical theory, we have failed to destroy the Taliban, we have diluted our efforts everywhere on a whim, and we have changed places with the Taliban as the most disliked rogue state. The only way we could magnify our failure is to spread this war farther.

Iran is peopled by citizens who actually like Americans. It is true that the leadership of Iran is another matter, but it is also true that this self-same leadership is running into the limits of their power. Even more so than Cuba, if we really wanted a democratic ally in Iran, all we would really have to do is complete normalize relations–the desires of the populace would do the rest. But it appears that the Neocons need Iran now (as they needed Cuba in the Cold War) as the hated face of radical fill-in-the-blank. The saber rattling will continue.

And so, onward we march to infamy . . .

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